APAC’s ascent within the international economic system


The financial load of the APAC area is projected to extend by 2040, primarily based on the financial enlargement of mainland China, India and the ten Southeast Asian international locations of the Affiliation of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

The entire GDP of the APAC area has elevated from USD9 trillion in 2000 to USD35 trillion by 2021, with APAC now accounting for about 37% of world GDP. By 2040, it will likely be round 42% of the world GDP. A lot of that contribution has come from mainland China, whose weight in world GDP elevated from 3.6% in 2000 to 18.6% by 2021, measured in nominal USD phrases.

This jap enlargement has far-reaching implications for multinationals world wide. Speedy progress in family incomes within the rising markets of China and India, that are populated by Asia, can be a serious driver of world consumption progress. As well as, client markets in populous Southeast Asian international locations – notably Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam – may even develop at a fast tempo.

Because the inhabitants of mainland China ages, this can have an effect on the nation’s long-term potential progress price. It will end in China’s share of world GDP at round 20.6% of world GDP by 2040, primarily based on the most recent long-term progress forecasts, which is just barely greater than its share of world GDP in 2021 .

China mainland convergence

Younger demographic profiles in different main Asian rising markets, notably India, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam, will assist mitigate the influence of growing old demographics in Northeast Asia. In consequence, general APAC financial progress is projected to proceed to outpace international progress over the following 20 years, serving to to drive APAC’s continued financial progress on the earth economic system.


In 2021, India’s GDP was barely greater than the UK GDP, making India the fifth largest economic system on the earth.

India’s economic system is predicted to renew fast progress in 2020-21 on a medium-term outlook after disruptions because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The most recent S&P World PMI survey information for India signifies {that a} robust financial rebound is underway in the course of the first half of 2022.

Companies sector progress continued to strengthen in Could 2022, with firms reporting the quickest progress in enterprise exercise since April 2011. This uptrend was supported by a considerable pick-up in new enterprise progress as demand continued to enhance after the economic system reopened after COVID-19. -19 lockdown.

Over the previous 20 years, the dimensions of India’s economic system has grown from 1.4% of world GDP in 2000 to three.3% by 2021 and is projected to develop to 7.4% by 2040. Additionally, by 2040, India’s GDP is projected to overhaul Germany. and Japan, which might rank India because the world’s third largest economic system after the US and China.


The ASEAN area contains the ten nations of Southeast Asia, with a mixed GDP of US$3.3 trillion in 2021, which is 3.4% of the world GDP.

Enchancment in home demand in ASEAN has helped help the restoration within the tempo of financial progress in the course of the first half of 2022. In the long term, the ASEAN area is predicted to proceed to beat the extended adverse financial shocks brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic. Be one of many quickest rising sectors of the world economic system. This fast tempo of progress can be pushed by each export and home demand.

Over the following 20 years, different quickly rising Asia-Pacific markets, notably China and India, will increase ASEAN’s exports. Mainland China and Hong Kong SAR collectively accounted for 22.6% of ASEAN exports of products in 2020. Intra-ASEAN commerce can also be more and more necessary, with intra-ASEAN exports accounting for 21% of complete ASEAN merchandise exports in 2020.

Home demand may even be an more and more necessary progress driver, because the quickly rising client markets of populous ASEAN international locations – notably Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam – assist drive consumption spending.

Robust funding expenditure by means of a mixture of fast progress in public infrastructure spending, robust personal funding progress and international direct funding inflows may even be a key issue supporting progress.

Helped by this mixture of progress drivers, complete ASEAN GDP, measured in nominal USD phrases, is projected to greater than quadruple over the following 20 years, rising from USD3 trillion in 2020 to USD13.3 trillion by 2040. It will make up the mixed GDP. The ASEAN economic system is predicted to be a lot bigger than the GDP of Japan or Germany by 2040, highlighting the rising significance of the ASEAN area as one of many world’s largest client markets. By 2040, ASEAN’s share in world GDP is projected to extend to five.4% of world GDP.

Posted by Rajeev Biswas on 16 Aug 2022Government Director and Chief Economist for Asia-Pacific, S&P World Market Intelligence

This text was printed by S&P World Market Intelligence and never by S&P World Rankings, a individually managed division of S&P World.


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